Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.340870 14.401002 16.649451 19.279145 22.263534 25.538247 29.396310
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 8.605313 11.274084 14.480027 18.585226 23.669412 29.724229 37.441846
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.298405 9.144207 12.861661 18.004118 24.852850 33.570364 45.400554
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.989622 7.927101 12.052894 18.146154 26.765448 38.347592 54.874235
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.944366 6.814354 11.122936 17.872770 27.944440 42.132722 63.270569
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.437338 6.383365 11.064316 18.769199 30.783959 48.373200 75.503816
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.928087 5.831645 10.702769 19.103740 32.752832 53.454698 86.413080
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.473011 5.272738 10.222327 19.145979 34.213914 57.831629 96.543406
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.105465 4.793863 9.790150 19.182218 35.619863 62.176343 106.878133
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.984594 4.767053 10.150952 20.614626 39.453559 70.619462 124.175890
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.815660 4.606541 10.232066 21.537114 42.471879 77.924460 140.094890
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.656252 4.433528 10.258392 22.346535 45.340081 85.150353 156.306386
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.410942 4.025786 9.772901 22.155626 46.451316 89.597312 168.410041
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.149097 3.518466 8.999765 21.298450 46.243009 91.749872 176.800236
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.945331 3.104695 8.357749 20.616840 46.284904 94.325974 186.075862
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.826482 2.887066 8.124089 20.766333 47.964429 99.983646 201.154434
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.700044 2.613422 7.708550 20.454969 48.665514 103.847169 213.201041
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.655706 2.574519 7.866424 21.461323 52.185953 113.284133 236.032442
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.587777 2.442696 7.762534 21.836660 54.383993 120.282683 254.662182
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.515398 2.275348 7.535208 21.883893 55.865554 125.955488 271.079859
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.452398 2.121556 7.317629 21.924522 57.327606 131.669073 287.873038
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.446208 2.175573 7.701118 23.532849 62.468264 145.150662 320.481340
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.421790 2.153323 7.857455 24.567759 66.364770 156.283111 348.982788